If you look at Alejandro Osuna’s numbers you wouldn’t be too impressed. His slash line is .193/.319/.263. All of these are below MLB average. The normal batting average is .250 and Osuna is under the Mendoza line with a .193 batting average. The average on-base percentage is .320, so Osuna is right around league average at .319. Finally his slugging percentage is at .263 while the MLB average is .414, this is the biggest difference in his slash line compared to the average hitter.
When you look at these numbers, you would think that it would do some good to send Osuna down to the minor leagues so he can get more reps to work on his game. It seemed that would be the case as he was struggling to get everyday reps once he began to struggle. However, he got a bit of a mental reset and only played in two games between June 12 and June 23. He made the most of the break as he returned to the lineup on June 24 and this move has paid dividends. In this span his slash line has been .260/.357/.435 with his first MLB home run and 3 RBIs.
Some people may think that he’s just in a hot streak and he will cool off returning back to his previous numbers. They couldn’t be further from the truth, you have to dive into Osuna’s advanced stats to get the full picture.
Osuna’s advanced statistics show that his under yielding numbers show that he is getting unlucky and that is due for some positive regression. His xBA is .301, his xSLG is .472 and his xwOBA is .390. All of these metrics are elite and show that Osuna is playing at an extremely high level.
To show how unlucky Osuna is getting and how big the difference between his expected stats and actual stats are, I have pulled up the biggest differences in expected batting average, expected slugging, and expected on-base percentage from baseball savant.
The difference between Osuna’s actual stats and expected stats is first or second in all three categories across the MLB. This shows how big the difference is in Osuna’s numbers and that his stats should even out.
I am shocked to see that Osuna is first or second in every category. I knew that there was a big difference in expected numbers versus actual numbers, but this is a crazy. I do feel bad for Jac Caglianone who is the same boat as Osuna with the biggest difference in batting average and OBA while being second to Osuna in their difference in slugging.
His other advanced stats should that Osuna is playing much better than the eye sees. His avg exit velocity is also well above league average that shows he is hitting the ball hard, his hard hit percentage and sweet spot percentage also back this up to show that Osuna is making good contact. His plate discipline has also been elite.
You can see that just from his numbers since he has been called up as he nearly has the same amount of strikeouts and walks with a 14:10 ratio. The advanced stats support this as it shows that he doesn’t chase much and when he does chase he makes contact at a high clip.
His strikeout percentage is average while his walk percentage is very high. He does a good job at making pitchers worked and proves to be a tough out.
His arm strength and sprint speed are both above league average and show that even when his bat isn’t hot, he is finding a way to help the team.
I am happy to see that the baseball is starting to go Osuna’s way recently and hopefully that can continue for him and the Rangers. A potential breakout for Alejandro Osuna could be the key to helping unlock the Rangers offense, but only time will tell.
All we can do is watch and hope that stuff goes right for the young outfielder.
